Research

Argentina Argentina Argentina research portal includes Macro, Strategy, Provincial and Corporate pieces LEARN MORE

LATAM LATAM Macro and sovereign strategy reports about Uruguay, Ecuador & El Salvador LEARN MORE

(2025.01.10) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2025.01.03) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2025.01.03) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

December CPI prints +0.34%mom, slightly above the +0.30%mom expectations portrayed in the BCU’s survey.

(2025.01.02) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

We take a look at November's fiscal print and the 3Q24 BoP figures

(2024.12.31) Provinces 4Q24

Argentina Provinces: 4Q24 Update

(2024.12.30) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash

Mr. Kicillof suffered a new setback, as after intense negotiations, the UxP block was unable to gather the required support to pass the budget and tax laws for 2025.

(2024.12.27) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.12.20) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.12.13) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

GDP rose by +4.1%yoy in 3Q24— increasing +0.6%qoq seasonally adjusted— with the economy posting a very robust quarter both in the yoy and qoq metrics.

(2024.12.13) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.12.10) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash

PBA’s fiscal performance worsened in 3Q24, diluting the more solid showing of 1H24, which capitalized the contractionary macro setting to tighten expenditures.

(2024.12.06) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.12.04) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

November CPI prints +0.36%mom, slightly above the +0.31%mom expectations portrayed in the BCU’s survey.

(2024.12.03) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash

Yesterday, CABA announced a tender offer to purchase up to USD550mn of its Bueair 2027.

(2024.12.02) TPCG Strategy View

We ask ourselves if (i) the FX framework is robust in its attempt to anchor FX until the 2025 mid-terms and (ii) the disinflation trajectory is sustainable.

(2024.12.02) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

We take a look at October's fiscal figures, with the adjusted 12m-rolling deficit clocking in at -3.9% of GDP, tightening relative to September.

(2024.11.29) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.11.25) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

Mr. Orsi obtained a comfortable win in yesterday’s second round, edging Mr. Delgado by 3.9pp and marking the return of the FA to power after a single 5-year hiatus.

(2024.11.22) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.11.15) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.11.15) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

In November’s COPOM meeting, board members decided to maintain the policy rate at +8.5%

(2024.11.08) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.11.05) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.33%mom

(2024.11.01) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

We take a look at September's fiscal figures, with the adjusted 12m-rolling deficit clocking in at -4.1% of GDP, tightening relative to August.

(2024.11.01) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.10.28) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

In yesterday´s elections, the government coalition snatched a surprise win edging the FA by 3pp. The Soc.Sec plebiscite didn´t pass, clocking at 38%.

(2024.10.25) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.10.18) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.10.10) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.10.04) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.10.03) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.37%mom

(2024.10.02) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

We take a look at August's fiscal balance and the 2Q24 Balance of Payments

(2024.09.30) Provinces 3Q24

Argentina Provinces:3Q24 Update

(2024.09.27) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina and Uruguay while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.09.20) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.09.13) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s growth clocked in at +3.8%yoy in 2Q24

(2024.09.13) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.09.06) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.09.05) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.29%mom

(2024.09.04) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s new global USD issuance came out at 5.293%

(2024.09.03) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay announces the issuance of a global USD 2060 bond

(2024.09.02) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

The fiscal balance clocks in at -4.0% of GDP in July

(2024.09.02) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

The fiscal position clocked in at -2.6% of GDP in July

(2024.08.30) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.08.23) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.08.19) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

The BCU mantains the policy rate at +8.5%.

(2024.08.16) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.08.09) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.08.05) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.11%mom

(2024.08.02) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.08.01) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

We take a look at June's fiscal figures.

(2024.08.01) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

The fiscal position clocked in at -2.7% of GDP in June

(2024.07.26) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.07.23) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

Uruguay Strategy View: ’23 Budget Review

(2024.07.19) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.07.17) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

The BCU mantains the policy rate at +8.5%

(2024.07.12) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.07.05) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.07.04) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.36%mom

(2024.07.03) Provinces 2Q24

Argentina Provinces:2Q24 Update

(2024.07.01) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

Uruguay Strategy View: Our take after the primaries

(2024.07.01) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

The fiscal position clocked in at -2.8% of GDP in May

(2024.06.28) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.06.26) TPCG Strategy View

Time to bring the car in for a service?

(2024.06.14) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s growth clocked in at +0.6%yoy in 1Q24

(2024.06.14) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.06.07) Weekly Summary

We present our review of this week's macroeconomic publications for Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, and Ecuador while also previewing the indicators poised to be published next week.

(2024.06.04) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay presented its latest report on the evolution of the two variables determining compliance with the KPIs embedded in the 2034 SSLB bond, with both indicators evolving favorably.

(2024.06.03) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

We take a look at April´s fiscal figures

(2024.06.03) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

We take a look at April's fiscal figures.

(2024.05.29) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

With the electoral race starting to heat up, and the plebiscite for a social security reform practically confirmed, we draw up the scenarios corresponding to the potential outcomes of the incoming electoral process for Uruguay.

(2024.05.17) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

In May’s COPOM meeting, board members decided to maintain the policy rate at +8.5%.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2024.05.09)

Uruguay's new global UI 2045 bond came out at a 3.4% rate, while the retap of the UYU33 stood at 9.15%

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2024.05.08)

We take a look at the announcement of the issuance of a new 2045 global UI and a retap of the UYU2033.

(2024.05.03) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.63%mom

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2024.05.02)

We take a look at March's fiscal figures.

(2024.05.02) TPCG Strategy View

Thoughts on creditor sentiment, student demonstrations, and lines in the sand

(2024.05.02) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

The fiscal position clocked in at -2.4% of GDP in March

TPCG Corporates - FY23 Update

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2024.04.29)

On Saturday, the PIT-CNT presented 430k signatures supporting the plebiscite to rework the social security system.

(2024.04.19) TPCG Daily Strategy Watch

With fundamentals improving rapidly, creditors’ concerns gravitate around how Mr. Milei’s approval ratings will evolve over the coming months.

(2024.04.17) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

El Salvador announced the results of the tender offer for its Eurobonds maturing in 2025, 2027 and 2029.

(2024.04.15) Provinces 1Q24

Argentina Provinces: 1Q24 Update

(2024.04.15) TPCG Strategy Flash

We present our thoughts regarding March's inflation print.

(2024.04.12) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

ELSALV 30 came out at a 12% yield, collecting USD1bn

(2024.04.12) TPCG Strategy View

We take a look at the monetary policy since December to find out if the policy implementation is consistent with the Government’s desired destination.

(2024.04.11) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

The BCU lowered the policy rate by 50bp to +8.5%.

(2024.04.11) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

Some additional thoughts on the recent developments

(2024.04.09) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

El Salvador announced a tender offer for its 2025, 2027 and 2029 eurobonds.

TPCG Corporates - TGS & TGN receiving 675% tariff increase

We expect the transitional increase in natural gas transportation tariff to boost TGS and TGN 2Q24 results.

(2024.04.05) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash

Some thoughts on the conflict with provincial pension funds

(2024.04.03) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.02%mom

(2024.04.03) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

The fiscal balance clocks in at -3.6% of GDP in February

(2024.04.03) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

The fiscal balance clocks in at -3.6% of GDP in February

TPCG Corporates - MSUNRG 2025 a pearl in Argentine waters

We reiterate our recommendation on MSUNRG 6.875 2025s.

TPCG Corporates - YPF: prices on their way to recovery

We expect YPF to deliver a strong result in 2024 driven by the rise in local prices and the increase in exports.

(2024.03.22) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s growth clocked in at +0.4%yoy in 2023

(2024.03.20) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy View

We take a deep dive into the provincial fiscal balances, their income and expenditure composition, to better grasp the implications the strategies the national government is currently implementing could have on provincial balance sheets.

(2024.03.13) TPCG Strategy Flash

Montlhy inflation clocked in at +13.2%mom in February.

TPCG Corporates - TGS 4Q23 & FY23: in the wait for a tariff increase

We expect the transitional increase in natural gas transportation tariff to boost TGS 2Q24 results.

TPCG Strategy View - A Tale of Two Economic Programs

With the Milei Administration closing on its first 100 days, we look deeply at the two economic programs it launched and the challenges ahead.

(2024.03.05) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

Uruguay’s Monthly Inflation Prints +0.64%mom

(2024.03.01) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

The fiscal position clocked in at -2.1% of GDP in January

(2024.03.01) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

The fiscal balance clocks in at -3.6% of GDP in January

(2024.02.27) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash

La Rioja fails to meet its principal and interest payments on the PRIO28.

(2024.02.26) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash

We take a look at the recent decision of the national government to cut the Fiscal Strenghtening Fund

(2024.02.23) TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash

In February’s COPOM meeting, board members decided to maintain the policy rate at +9%.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2024.02.05)

We take a look at January's CPI print

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2024.02.01)

We take a look at December's fiscal figures.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy View (2024.02.01)

We take a look at December's fiscal figures.

TPCG Corporates - YPF is back!

We share our views on the new YPFDAR 2031 bond.

(2024.01.04) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

We take a look at December´s CPI print

(2024.01.02) TPCG Uruguay Strategy View

We take a look at November´s fiscal print, the 3Q23 BoP figures, and the BCU´s decision to lower the policy rate by 25 bp to 9%.

(2024.01.02) TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash

We take a look at November´s fiscal figures.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 4Q23 (2023.12.29)

Argentina Provinces: 4Q23 Update

TPCG Uruguay Strategy View (2023.12.27)

We present our baseline scenario for Uruguay's 2024.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.12.15)

Uruguay's GDP contracted by -0.2yoy in 3Q23.

TPCG Corporates - Words are easier said than done

We share our views on the O&G and Power Generation sectors considering the statements of the newly elected government.

TPCG Strategy View - First thoughts about the Caputo Program

We present our thoughts on Mr. Caputo's announcements.

Corporates 3Q23 Update

In this presentation, you will find a compilation of the 3Q23 results of the most important Argentine corporate names.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.12.05)

We take a look at November's CPI print

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.12.01)

We take a look at October's fiscal figures.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.12.01)

We take a look at October's fiscal figures.

TPCG Corporates - The hard way

We share our views on the energy sector in the next government.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.11.22)

We analyze the fiscal outlook for PBA after the second round results.

TPCG Strategy View - Do you have a clue what happens now?

We take a look at the results of yesterday's runnoff.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.11.17)

In yesterday's COPOM meeting, BCU officials lowered the policy rate 25bp to +9.25%.

TPCG Strategy US and UK Trips - November 2023

We share the deck of slides we used during our US and UK November 2023 trips.

TPCG Corporates - YPF 3Q23: not too bad

We share our view on YPF 3Q23 results.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.11.06)

The administration announced a re-tap of the 2034 SSLB.

TPCG Corporates - Some thoughts on the O&G sector

We share our view on the recent update of diesel and gasoline prices.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.11.03)

We take a look at October's CPI print

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.11.01)

We take a look at September's fiscal figures.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.11.01)

We take a look at September's fiscal figures.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.10.30)

TdF launched its reestructuring offer for the FUEGO27.

TPCG Corporates - Vista 3Q23: back on track

Vista’s 3Q23 results showed a qoq improvement, with revenues increasing +25% qoq boosting the EBITDA margin at a record high of 78%.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.10.23)

We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in CABA, PBA and Entre Ríos.

TPCG Strategy View - The Peronist machinery pulls a miracle

We take a look at the results of yesterday's general election.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 3Q23 (2023.10.18)

Argentina Provinces: 3Q23 Update

TPCG Corporates - An analysis of 2024 maturities

We believe that the new government will avoid one of the Argentine companies going into default a few weeks after taking office. For this reason, we remain Overweight on AES 7.75 2024s and MSUNRG 6.875 2025s.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.10.09)

TdF is preparing a restructuring offer for the FUEGO27.

TPCG Corporates - New power generation projects on sight

Among Argentine companies with global bonds, we only find attractive MSUNRG 6.875 2025.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.10.06)

In yesterday's COPOM meeting, BCU officials lowered the policy rate 50bp to +9.5%. In addition, we take a look at the recent slippage of the UYU

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.10.04)

We take a look at September's CPI print

TPCG Uruguay Strategy View (2023.10.02)

We take a look at August's fiscal print and the 2Q23 BoP figures.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.10.02)

We take a look at the 2Q23 BoP print and August's fiscal figures.

Corporates Update 2Q23

In this presentation, you will find a compilation of the 2Q23 results of the most important Argentine corporate names

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.09.25)

We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in Mendoza.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash (2023.09.22)

We take a look at the potential impact of the Income Law project on provincial fiscal balances.

TPCG Corporates - Equity Strategy

We summarize the Argy equity market performance in the past month and provide a credit-by-credit analysis of a selected equities group with our recommendation.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.09.18)

We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in Chaco.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.09.15)

Uruguay’s GDP contracted by -2.5%yoy in 2Q23.

TPCG Strategy View - The Milei Program. What we know so far.

In this piece we delve deeply into what a possible Libertarian government program could look like.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.09.11)

We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in Santa Fe.

TPCG Corporates - YPF rowing in dulce de leche

In our view, YPF bonds are rich, considering that the company’s next quarters’ results will weaken.

TPCG Corporates - TGN flowing like nat. gas to the north

We initiate coverage of Transportadora de Gas del Norte (ticker in BYMA: TGNO4).

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.09.05)

We take a look at August's CPI print.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.09.01)

We take a look at July's fiscal figures.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.09.01)

We take a look at July's fiscal figures.

TPCG Strategy View - Post-PASO outlook: A few thoughts about rationalizing a bad outcome?

We take a look at the aftermath of the PASO, dissecting the Libertarian electorate, and reviewing the challenges of each candidate going forward.

TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.08.14)

We take a look at the results of the PASO in CABA and PBA.

TPCG Strategy View - Libertarian Dawn. Peronist Dusk?

We take a look at the results of the PASO.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.08.11)

Yesterday the PIT-CNT greenlighted a campaign to challenge the social security reform via referendum.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.08.10)

We take a look at Mr. Labat's comments on inflation, the policy rate and the FX going forward.

TPCG Corporates - TGS’s strength relies on its large liquidity position

We analyze TGS 2Q23 results.

We believe TRAGAS 6.75 2025s are fair priced. However, it is still attractive for those looking for a front-end bond with some carry.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.08.03)

We take a look at July's CPI print.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.08.01)

We take a look at June's fiscal figures.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.08.01)

We take a look at June's fiscal figures.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.07.31)

Yesterday in Chubut, JxC managed to edge peronism in a tight election.

TPCG Strategy View - Mr. Massa goes to Washington

We take a look at the available details of the 5th Review SLA announced on Friday, including the new targets and the revised schedule of payments.

TPCG Corporates - AES 7.75 2024s Exchange Offer

TPCG Uruguay Strategy View (2023.07.20)

We take a look at the 2022 Budget Review, delving into the administration's macro forecasts and fiscal path going forward.

Weekly Summary (2023.07.17)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

TPCG Corporates - Vista 2Q23: A stumble is not a fall

Vista has delivered a strong performance in the past years, with revenues growing rapidly by focusing on shale crude oil production. We believe Vista’s revenues bottomed in 2Q23 and will resurge strongly in 3Q23.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.07.12)

We take a look at the final results of yesterday's issuance and tender offer

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.07.11)

We take a look at the recent issuance announcement made by the government of Uruguay, and we price the expected 2033 global UYU-denominated bond.

TPCG Strategy View - Rallying bonds, worsening fundamentals: Is it all about the election trade?

We take and in depth look at the recent drivers of the Argy rally, while also delving into the worsening fundamentals supporting the story.

TPCG Corporates - Some trade ideas with YPFDAR, BUEAIR, CAPXAR & TRAGAS

We analyze corporate bond performance in the past week and recommend some trade ideas. We believe BUEAIR 27 and CAPXAR 24 are rich.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.07.07)

In yesterday's COPOM meeting, BCU officials lowered the policy rate 50bp to +10.75%.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.07.05)

We take a look at June's CPI print,

TPCG Uruguay Strategy View (2023.07.03)

We take a look at May's fiscal print, the 1Q23 BoP figures and the presentation of the 2022 Budget Review.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.07.03)

We take a look at the 1Q22 BoP print and May's fiscal figures.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 2Q23 (2023.06.30)

Argentina Provinces: 2Q23 Update

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.06.30)

The Govt. presented the guidelines for the 10th round of salary negotiations.

TPCG Corporates - 1Q23 Update

TPCG Strategy View - The race’s mile zero. Forty-two to go

We take an in-depth look at the electoral outlook , delving into each of the coalitition's configuration and challenges going forward

Weekly Summary (2023.06.05)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.06.05)

We take a look at May's CPI print, the BCU's MonPol path going forward, and the administration's comments on possible FX interventions.

TPCG Corporates - PAM: On a more robust position than in 2013-2015

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.06.01)

We take a look at April's fiscal figures.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.06.01)

We take a look at April's fiscal figures.

Weekly Summary (2023.05.30)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.05.22)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

TPCG Corporates - Other Industries

Overview of TECOAR, AEROAR, IRSAAR, ARCOR & MASHER 1Q23 results.

TPCG Corporates - Genneia outperforms in the power generation sector

We noticed heterogeneity in the performance of power generation companies’ 1Q23 results. In this report, we explain the main reasons.

We believe PAMPAR 9.5 26s are rich, thus, we recommend swapping them for GNNEIA 8.75 27s.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.05.17)

We take a look at Mr. Lasso's decision to enact the Muerte Cruzada.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.05.17)

In yesterday's COPOM meeting, BCU officials mantained the policy rate at +11.25%.

Weekly Summary (2023.05.16)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.05.15)

On Sunday, the Assembly renewed its authorities, with the opposition obtaining all relevant positions in a very lopsided session.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.05.15)

Provinces Strategy Flash: Salta, La Pampa, & Fuego elections

TPCG Corporates - YPF SA 1Q23: remain firm

YPF reported strong 1Q23 results considering that 1Q has been historically the weakest during the year and the effect of the severe drought that impacted diesel sales and grain and flours exports.

We are still Overweight on YPFDAR 25s Old, 26s Secured and 33s. We also recommend 2 swap ideas with Pampa Energia’s bonds.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.05.11)

We take a look at the aftermath of the Assemby's decision to greenlight the impeachment against Mr. Lasso.

Weekly Summary (2023.05.09)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.05.08)

Provinces Strategy Flash: Misiones, Jujuy, & La Rioja elections.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.05.08)

After the Control Commission's report failed to muster enough support, the decision to continue with Mr. Lasso's impeachment passed to the Assembly.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy View (2023.05.05)

We take a look at the aftermath of the bond repurchase and the political situation heading into the key days of the impeachment process.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.04.17)

Provinces Strategy Flash: Neuquén and PRN elections.

Weekly Summary (2023.01.02)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2022.01.09)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.01.16)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.01.23)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.01.30)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.02.06)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.02.13)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.03.06)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.03.13)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.03.20)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.03.27)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.04.03)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.04.18)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

Weekly Summary (2023.04.25)

The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.05.04)

Uruguay's Montlhy Inflation prints +0.75%mom.

TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 1Q23 (2023.03.31)

Argentina Provinces: 1Q23 Update

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.01.04)

The government exchanged ARS2.9tn, about 67% of the ARS4.3tn in eligible principle.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.27)

Media reports over the weekend pointed out that the Government had negotiated with the IMF to amend the coming NIR targets.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.24)

The BA bourse revised downward its harvest estimate following the damage that last week’s freeze and sleet caused in the core area.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.23)

The primary deficit printed ARS203bn in January, the widest in real terms since the end of the Convertibilidad.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.15)

January’s CPI printed 6%mom, signaling a generalized reacceleration of core and seasonal prices.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.14)

All signs point to inflation continuing its upward trend in January.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.13)

: Media rumors report that the government could announce a USD1- 1.5bn repo with international lenders this week.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.07)

: The JxC leadership released a statement yesterday warning about the government’s financing strategy and zeroing in on the instability of the ARS debt.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.03)

The FdT’s internal dispute escalated in the last weeks, with Kirchnerism dialing up its attacks on Mr. Fernandez, who’s increasingly signaling his intent to run for reelection in a context where the rest of Peronism is failing to find a better candidate.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.02)

January’s high-frequency inflation gauges printed 5.5%mom on the back of seasonal price pressures and rebounding beef prices.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.01)

: January’s FX market slid again into the red, resulting in a reserve loss of around USD3bn.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.29)

The Central Bank closes March selling about USD1.6bn, rounding up the worst 1Q since 2003.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.27)

: Mauricio Macri announced yesterday his intention not to participate in the 2023 race, leaving the path open for Mr. Rodriguez Larreta and Mrs. Bullrich.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.23)

We take a deep look at why the Government launched a mandatory debt exchange for private entities.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.21)

: The February primary deficit confirmed our fears that the January print was less of an accident than the Government had signaled.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.20)

The inflationary acceleration and the drought put the Government in a tight spot as its economic policy mix has broken.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.15)

: The February CPI surprised at 6.6%mom, well above expectations, with core prices printing the highest figure on record, at 7.7%mom.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.14)

: The Government and the IMF staff reached an agreement over the EFF program’s fourth review

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.10)

The 2Q ARS debt exchange swapped 64% of the eligible principal, the minimum pledged amount by banks

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.07)

: High-frequency inflation clocked at 6.2%mom in February, driven by accelerating core and seasonal prices

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.06)

: Media reports anticipate that the Government is close to finalizing a deal with regulated players to roll over most of the ARS12tn in ARS paper maturing between June and September.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.04.25)

While the FX market dynamics continue deteriorating, the Government scrambles to find a policy response

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.05.02)

We take a look at March's fiscal figures.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.04.21)

L: As expected, the Government missed the 1Q23 primary deficit target, despite a sharp drop in primary spending.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.04.17)

March inflation printed 7.7%mom, surprising yet again on the upside.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.31)

: Mr. Massa told the press that the Government plans to announce on Monday a rationalization of the myriad of FXs created over the past couple of years.

TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.30)

Alberto Fernandez and Sergio Massa toured NY and DC, seeking (i) additional flex in the IMF targets and (ii) fresh financing to compensate for the FX market shortfall resulting from the drought

Argentina Year Ahead (2023.01.18)

We present our 2023 Year Ahead for Argentina

TPCG Strategy View (2023.04.06)

We take a look at the 4th review of Argy's IMF program, focusing on the administration's compliance with past and future targets.

TPCG Strategy View (2023.01.27)

We take a look at the recent fiscal print, in addition to the buyback's aftermath.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.05.02)

We take a look at March's fiscal figures.

TPCG Corporates - Vista 1Q23: the effects of increasing exports are beginning to be noticed

In the middle of high FX volatility, Vista reported strong 1Q23 with revenues and EBITDA growing by +46% and +61% yoy, positive FCF, cash + ST investments increasing by 43% qoq, and an LTM1Q23 net leverage of 0.4x.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.04.27)

The govt. coalition approved the pension reform in the Lower House.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.04.27) - Labat Conference

We take a look at Mr. Labat's comments in today's press conference.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.01.24)

El Salvador announced the payment of its 2023 Eurobond,

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.04.20)

In yesterday's COPOM meeting, BCU officials lowered the policy rate 25bp to +11.25%.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.04.19)

The administration is on its way to greenlight the pension reform. We analyze the concessions made to both Cabildo Abierto and Colorado Party.

TPCG Corporates - FY22 Update

Corporates Update FY22

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.04.10)

We take a look at a recent poll that maps the possible outcome of a snap election.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy View (2023.04.04)

We revise our LCD strategy in light of the recent BoP and inflation prints.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.04.03)

We take a look at the 4Q22 BoP print and February's fiscal figures.

TPCG Corporates - A positive outcome for YPF on Burford case

TPCG Corporates - A positive outcome for YPF on Burford case

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.03.30)

The Constitutional Court finally greenlighted the impeachment attempt against Mr. Lasso.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.03.30)

El Salvador's yearly GDP print clocked in at +2.6%yoy in 2022, slightly under the +2.8% BCR estimate.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.03.24)

Uruguay's growth clocked in at +4.9%yoy in 2022, with 4Q figures standing at -0.1%yoy.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.03.22)

We take a look at the recent political developments, with the impeachment attempt against Mr. Lasso now being delayed by nearly a week.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.03.21)

We present our take regarding the IMF's staff appraisal of Uruguay's 2022.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.03.16)

We take a look at the recent political developments, as the impeachment attempt gains traction within the general public.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy View (2023.03.15)

We present the key takeaways from our recent talks with officials and market participants.

TPCG Corporates - YPF: FY23E will not be as great as FY22

TPCG Corporates FY23E will not be as great as FY22

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.03.06)

With the Assembly approving the Encuentro Case report, we take a look at the steps the impeachment against Mr. Lasso must go through to come to fruition.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.03.03)

We present our take regarding Mr. Lacalle Pou's announcements.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.03.03) - Inflation

Uruguay's Montlhy Inflation prints +1.0%mom.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.03.01)

We take a look at January's fiscal figures.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.03.01)

We take a look at January's fiscal figures.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy View (2023.02.28)

We present our updated base scenario for El Salvador

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.02.27)

On Friday, the CONIAE decided to break negotiations with the administration, in addition to asking for the resignation of Mr. Lasso.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.02.16)

In yesterday's COPOM meeting, BCU officials mantained the policy rate at +11.5%.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.02.15)

After the government's defeat in the referendum, the correist caucus is now pressing its advantage, working different angles to oust Mr. Lasso.

TPCG Corporates - fixed income and equities O&G sector Argentinas new engine

TPCG Corporates fixed income and equities O&G sector Argentinas new engine

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.02.14)

We take a look at the aftermath of the talks with the IMF within the context of the annual Article IV meetings.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.02.13)

The administration issued USD0.9bn in local paper in a joint operation between the MEF and BCU.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.02.07)

We take a look at the definitive referendum results.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.02.06)

We present our take on the preeliminary election results.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy View (2023.02.03)

We take a look at the forecasts for Sunday's election and referendum.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.02.03)

Uruguay's Montlhy Inflation prints +1.55%mom.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.02.01)

We take a look at 2022's fiscal figures.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.02.01)

We take a look at 2022's fiscal figures.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.01.27)

We take a look at how the referendum race is likely to go for Mr. Lasso.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.01.24)

We take a look at the BCU's quarterly monetary policy report, and its baseline growth, inflation and REER scenario for 2023.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.01.20)

We dissect Mr. Bukele's approval ratings, identifying its main drivers.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy Flash (2023.01.17)

We take a look at the recent escalation of the conflict between the Assembly and the CPCCS.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy View (2023.01.13)

We present the Year Ahead for 2023, displaying our baseline scenario for Ecuador.

TPCG Ecuador Strategy View (2023.01.04)

We take a look at the aftermath of the agreements with China, in addition to the 3Q22 GDP print, which surprised on the upside.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.01.04)

Uruguay's Montlhy Inflation prints -0.26%mom.

TPCG El Salvador Strategy Flash (2023.01.02)

We take a look at November's fiscal figures.

TPCG Uruguay Strategy Flash (2023.01.02)

We take a look at the recent policy rate hike and November's fiscal figures.

TPCG Corporates - 3Q22 Update

Corporates Update 3Q22

TPCG Corporates - YPF on the sunny side of the street

TPCG Corporates - YPF on the sunny side of the street

TPCG Corporates - The gust of wind hasn’t reached YPFLUZ 26s yet

TPCG Corporates - The gust of wind hasn’t reached YPFLUZ 26s yet

TPCG Corporates - YPF’s performance overshadowed by the macro environment

TPCG Corporates - YPF’s performance overshadowed by the macro environment

TPCG Corporates - Fishing in troubled waters

TPCG Corporates Fishing in troubled waters

TPCG Corporates - PAMPAR 9.5 2026s not to overlook

TPCG Corporates PAMPAR 9.5 2026s not to overlook

TPCG Corporates - Argentine banks on lethargy

TPCG Corporates Argentine banks on lethargy

TPCG Corporates - Nobody is watching YPF 26s

TPCG Corporates - Nobody is watching YPF 26s

TPCG Corporates - 1Q22 strong, 2Q holding ground

TPCG Corporates - TGS 1Q22 strong, 2Q holding ground

TPCG Corporates - Power Gen. more resilient corps in ‘22

TPCG Corporates Power Gen. more resilient corps in ‘22

TPCG Corporates - YPF bounced back; YPF LUZ does not go unnoticed

TPCG Corporates - YPF bounced back; YPF LUZ does not go unnoticed

TPCG Corporates - Catching YPFDAR’s wave

TPCG Corporates - Catching YPFDAR’s wave

TPCG Corporates - YPFLUZ 10 26s: smooth sailing ahead

TPCG Corporates - YPFLUZ 10 26s: smooth sailing ahead

TPCG Corporates - O&G: a base view

O&G: a base view

TPCG Corporates - CLISA Initiation

TPCG Corporates - CLISA Initiation

Powered by Ingematica